The Bridgend Assembly constituency gives us an example of how our method of swinging seats will work in a marginal.
The constituency is centered on the town of Bridgend itself, and not normally regarded as a marginal but we can show how the seat of our First Minister, Carwyn Jones could be swung by our methods. Turnout at the last Assembly election for this seat was only 41%, below average, and there are about 60,000 registered voters in the constituency. About 24,500 voted at the last Assembly election, 35,000 didn't.
Labour won it by 2556 votes, so if 1279 of those people had voted Conservative instead, and a straight switch between the two main parties is what usually happens, our First Minister would have lost the seat. If our campaign can get the support of a just over a thousand people we will have achieved our target in that seat.
75% of people believe they have a duty to vote, 41% did in this seat and the difference between the two is about 20,000 people. We think those 20,000 people believe democracy is important but don't believe in the system we have. We can expect the support of many of these people, but for arguments sake we'll cut that number to 5,000. There is a basic level of support for the green party throughout the country of 1%, and a larger number of people who are deeply concerned about the environmental challenges facing us. We can expect another 1% support from them as our system gives them the chance to create environmental legislation, that's another 700 people. The Lib Dems got almost 4,000 votes, even though they had no chance of winning the seat. We would ask Lib Dem voters to vote for Alex Williams, the Conservative candidate in this seat. They will not really be voting for the Conservatives, but voting to give themselves power. That's 4000 people who would probably support us. Even if we only get the support of 5% of floating voters who normally support Labour or the Conservatives, that gives us the support of another 1200 people. On these figures we can expect the support of over 10,000 people, many times more than 1,300 we need. We know from experience that almost everyone we speak to supports our aims, so the support for our campaign is likely to be much higher than these figures suggest.
In experimental canvassing conducted in Ceredigion we were getting pledges from 50% of people asked. That 50% is greater than the turnout in Assembly elections.
Goodbye Carwyn, hello Alex.